An ARCHES and School of Landscape Architecture and Planning Lecture Series Event
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For those attending in person, refreshments will be provided through the support of the Arizona Research Center for Housing and Economic Solutions (ARCHES) HUD grant. The event is free and open to the public—prior registration is requested.
The U.S. faces converging housing affordability and climate crises. Rising seas threaten to displace millions of coastal residents, creating new housing demand in communities that may already face constrained housing supply and affordability challenges. Yet little is known about whether the places displaced residents are likely to move can accommodate this demand, or how relocation may reshape housing markets and exacerbate existing inequalities.
This research examines the capacity of U.S. communities to accommodate sea level rise-driven migration. Combining NOAA sea level rise projections, FEMA building footprints, Census housing data, and historical migration flows, we estimate population displacement under different inundation scenarios and identify likely receiving communities. We then consider housing supply and its elasticity in these destinations to understand where relocation demand may place the greatest pressure on local housing markets.
Building on this national analysis, the next phase will examine how zoning and land use policies shape relocation opportunities and the potential for climate gentrification. By investigating displacement pressures in both coastal and receiving communities, the research aims to identify planning interventions that can expand housing capacity while minimizing secondary displacement and housing inequality.
About Nora Schwaller
Dr. Schwaller has a background grounded in architectural design, urban and regional planning, and demographic analysis. She earned her Masters of Architecture from Tulane University in 2013. Following this, she worked as an architect in the San Francisco Bay Area for several years before pursuing further education. She completed her Ph.D. in City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina in 2022 and subsequently held a one-year postdoctoral position at Brown University in their Population Studies and Training Center.
Her research is motivated by the recognition that climate change will necessitate significant population shifts. Dr. Schwaller is particularly interested in understanding the dynamics between areas becoming increasingly uninhabitable and the destinations to which displaced populations migrate. Her work focuses on understanding the reasons behind migration from vulnerable regions, identifying the destinations of these displaced populations, and exploring strategies to facilitate equitable relocation amidst deteriorating environmental conditions.
Header image courtesy Nora Schwaller.